2014年1月份全国养猪生产及价格动态监测项目报告【中国畜牧业协会猪业分会】

'内部资料注意妥善保管二〇一四年二月loanapprovalandpostcreditapprovalofficer/atalllevelsinaccordancewithcreditapprovalrules,licensingandeventualexerciseofcreditdecisionpowerofpersonsorinstitutions.Reviewfindingsandreviewcomments,accordingtotheBank"scredit 全国养猪生产及价格动态监测项目月度报告（2014年1月）中国畜牧业协会猪业分会中国畜牧业协会猪业分会地址：北京市朝阳区曙光西里甲6号时间国际大厦1座9层联系人：胡洋电话：010-58677700-868一、数据收集情况（一）监测企业地区分布本月监测企业数量75家，全国各地区分布情况：华北地区13家，东北地区7家，华东地区26家，中南地区16家，西南地区8家，西北地区5家。其中，华东地区监测企业数量最多，占监测企业总数的34.67%；其次是中南地区，占21.33%；西北地区的监测企业数量最少，占总数的6.67%。全国各地区监测企业分布情况见图1。图1监测企业地区分布（二）监测企业规模情况21/21 猪场规模按能繁殖母猪存栏量划分为6个数据段，其中规模在500-999头的9家，1001-1999头的18家，2000-4999头的25家，5000-9999头的12家，10000-19999头的9家，2万头以上的2家。猪场规模在500-1999头的企业共27家，占36%；猪场规模在2000头以上的企业共48家，占64%。监测企业猪场规模情况见图2。图2监测企业猪场规模情况二、生猪生产情况（一）月末存栏情况本月月末能繁母猪存栏量共计554401头，比上月减少6.03%，同比增加1.22%，其中原种猪环比分别减少0.46%，同比分别增加19.88%，祖代猪和父母代猪存栏环比分别减少11.94%和5.32%，同比减少10.09%和1.36%（表1）。其他各生长阶段猪存栏情况见表2。哺乳仔猪存栏环比减少9.06%，同比减少0.02%；保育猪存栏环比减少7%，同比增加1.05%；中猪存栏环比减少6.86%，同比减少11.9%；大猪存栏环比减少2.39%，同比减少8.2%。表1能繁母猪存栏量统计单位：头，%年月能繁母猪原种猪祖代种猪父母代种猪头数环比同比头数环比同比头数环比同比头数环比同比201301547745-0.645.101031462.917.55138545-1.072.03305325-2.1212.8221/21 2013025514200.673.751054372.228.10135402-2.27-1.053096871.4314.682013035571041.039.021066621.168.101379571.893.553117720.6713.792013045607090.655.031104143.529.301390900.825.03310601-0.382.382013055697341.615.271149464.1011.031395810.353.313130520.792.23201306569625-0.022.931168641.6713.36136110-2.49-2.443159660.932.132013075855422.795.641231095.3417.971404973.220.293164520.152.98201308584329-0.219.641237770.5422.90139120-0.980.69316028-0.136.55201309581823-0.438.21118577-4.2023.821415361.740.483184680.773.762013105858250.699.501199841.1923.541419770.312.033203130.585.862013115871210.228.711205280.4522.351429110.661.71318873-0.454.902013125899720.497.021242143.0623.93141456-1.021.00318103-0.241.97201401554401-6.031.22123647-0.4619.88124569-11.94-10.09301169-5.32-1.36注：原种猪指生产纯种猪的种猪，祖代种猪指生产杂种（二元）猪的种猪，父母代种猪指生产商品肉猪（三元或四元等）的种猪。表2各生长阶段猪存栏量统计单位：头，%年月哺乳仔猪保育猪中猪大猪头数环比同比头数环比同比头数环比同比头数环比同比2013015331740.0317.54717102-2.2517.29603815-5.8918.116644521.124.002013025560424.2923.627450933.9023.266182692.3914.466727711.2527.142013035572740.2226.127543311.2419.14610864-1.2016.46671734-0.1520.52201304549158-1.4618.38750344-0.5317.896237642.115.66667504-0.6320.062013055537930.8417.967539870.4915.27609692-2.26-2.376690340.2323.112013065634751.758.09733403-2.731.64599062-1.74-5.656716470.3910.862013075936415.3513.507861907.207.87590633-1.41-7.77668515-0.4712.002013085987290.867.827896070.439.975931480.43-10.466755041.056.822013096068121.357.08782057-0.967.87543575-8.36-18.45637982-5.555.63201310589483-2.866.117861150.526.715729525.40-11.64631596-1.000.62201311584968-0.775.91782824-0.427.75566333-1.16-9.356433901.87-1.732013125861770.219.97779232-0.466.225711360.85-10.98624884-2.88-4.91201401533084-9.06-0.02724658-7.001.05531972-6.86-11.90609977-2.39-8.20注：哺乳仔猪为断奶前的仔猪，保育猪体重在25kg以下，中猪体重在25-60kg，大猪体重在60kg以上。21/21 图32012年以来能繁母猪存栏量变化图42012-2014年能繁母猪存栏量21/21 图52012-2014年原种猪存栏量图62012-2014年祖代种猪存栏量图72012-2014年父母代种猪存栏量21/21 图82012年以来生猪存栏量变化（二）本月出栏情况本月育肥猪出栏量共计228700头，环比减少2.98%，同比减少10.95%；仔猪销量环比增加6.05%，同比增加41.02%（表3）。表3育肥猪出栏量及仔猪销量统计单位：头，%年月仔猪育肥猪头数环比同比累计头数环比同比累计2013011341699.9549.7349.73256810-1.4410.1010.10201302109471-18.414.2125.17248650-3.186.568.3320130313189320.4841.4330.44243566-2.0415.4810.552013041370103.8817.3426.66241493-0.857.999.922013051477427.8343.8130.13238213-1.363.928.7020130617061015.4851.5134.01232649-2.34-0.057.21201307166792-2.2454.3937.042339100.541.896.44201308162870-2.3527.2235.572347760.37-2.505.272013091644540.9742.7036.41215404-8.25-12.803.122013101713944.2250.6237.902246754.30-11.641.5121/21 2013111798274.9249.6539.082370295.50-7.820.59201312178409-0.7946.2139.73235724-0.55-9.54-0.342014011892036.0541.0241.02228700-2.98-10.95-10.95图92012-2014仔猪销量图102012-2014育肥猪出栏量（三）种猪销售情况本月纯种母猪销量环比减少8.87%，同比增加5.5821/21 %；二元母猪环比减少22.46%，同比减少22.8%（表4）。表4种猪销量统计单位：头，%月份纯种母猪二元母猪头数环比同比累计头数环比同比累计201301303028.7414.1214.115486912.5121.5621.5620130222458-25.89-20.08-3.4750068-8.75-14.771.012013033492855.537.030.466943838.693.822.1120130430901-11.53-19.25-5.5561795-11.012.152.12201305318993.23-20.15-9.07663727.419.963.74201306329973.44-5.30-8.4264001-3.576.564.2220130732264-2.22-3.48-7.7160990-4.7017.385.92201308341355.804.66-6.20637594.5423.297.892013093873713.4826.85-2.807484617.3926.149.9920131032777-15.3912.68-1.4261203-18.237.229.7220131132581-0.607.75-0.6456944-6.967.059.49201312351057.7525.971.2954632-4.0612.039.6720140131993-8.875.585.5842361-22.46-22.80-22.80图112011年以来种猪销量变化21/21 图122011-2014纯种母猪销量图132011-2014二元母猪销量（四）出栏体重情况本月各类猪出栏均重：原种猪80.18kg，环比下降2.95%，同比增加5.47%；祖代种猪78.3kg，环比增加8.3%，同比增加9.821/21 %；父母代种猪65.37kg，环比增加2.78%，同比增加4.14%；仔猪21.03kg，环比减少2.86%，同比增加1.37%；育肥猪105.17kg，环比减少2.91%，同比减少2.14%（附表2）。图142012年以来各类猪出栏体重变化（五）价格情况本月销售价格情况：原种猪4049.32元/头，环比减少2.66%，同比增加0.45%；祖代种猪3238.45元/头，环比增加0.72%，同比下跌0.8%；父母代种猪1846.04元/头，环比增加0.83%，同比增加0.19%；仔猪26.68元/kg，环比下跌2.06%，同比下跌2.06%；育肥猪14.59元/kg，环比下跌4.58%，同比下跌11.47%（附表1）。21/21 图152008-2014年原种猪价格变化图162008-2014年祖代种猪价格变化21/21 图172008-2014年父母代种猪价格变化图182008-2014年仔猪价格变化21/21 图192008-2014年育肥猪价格变化21/21 图202008年以来种猪价格走势21/21 图212008年以来商品猪价格走势21/21 三、当前生产形势分析和未来走势预测（一）能繁母猪：2013年10月以来，能繁母猪存栏量一直保持小幅增长，进入2014年，受生猪市场持续低迷的影响，监测企业开始出现淘汰母猪的现象，本月能繁母猪存栏环比明显下降，减少了6.03%，这是2012年以来下降幅度最大的一个月。但即使这样，同比仍有1.22%的增长，其中原种猪的存栏相对稳定，给母猪总存栏以有力的支撑，而祖代、父母代种猪存栏的环比和同比均呈现不同程度的下降。根据同比的增长，可判断目前能繁母猪的存栏还保持在高位，如果不出现大的疫情，生猪市场供大于求的状况仍将持续。（二）仔猪：本月仔猪、中猪和大猪的存栏较上月均出现明显的下降，其中以仔猪的存栏下降幅度最大，这可能是受仔猪价格下跌、销量增加等因素的带动，本月仔猪价格为26.68元/kg，环比下降2.06%，销量环比增加了6.05%。仔猪存栏从去年10月份开始减少，本月减少幅度较大，可能会使6-7月份的市场供给偏多的情况有所缓解。（三）育肥猪：本月猪价依旧没有走出旺季不旺的怪圈，月平均价格跌至14.59元/kg，环比下降4.58%；相应地出栏量也在减少，较上月减少了2.98%，比去年同期减少10.95%。考虑到行业整体产能和消费等多方面因素，预计这种价格走低、行业亏损的情况还将持续，至少在短期内（排除疫病风险）不能预见到扭转当前局面的利好因素。（四）种猪：种猪销量从去年10份开始下降，到今年1月份依然保持下降趋势，且本月下降幅度明显大于前三个月；其中，二元母猪销量连续4个月减少，下降趋势较纯种母猪明显。1月份，二元母猪销量环比减少22.46%，同比减少22.8%，可见近期市场对种猪的需求大幅下降，养殖户对后市的态度不积极，此外，二元母猪销量的下降还与春节前订单减少有关。由于2013年底，二元母猪销量累计增长了9.67%，因此近期行业整体产能还将保持高位。（五）出栏体重：由于种猪市场销售不旺，所以本月种猪的出栏体重均有不同程度的增加，原种、祖代及父母代种猪体重分别达到了21/21 80.18kg、78.30kg和65.37kg，较上月分别增长2.95%、8.30%和2.78%。21/21 附表1监测企业生猪价格动态单位：元/头，元/kg，%年月原种猪祖代种猪父母代种猪仔猪育肥猪价格环比同比价格环比同比价格环比同比价格环比同比价格环比同比2010014261.11-1.196.532997.374.866.651595.45-12.639.7021.79-3.497.4212.38-3.90-9.022010024408.933.4710.223104.503.5734.251553.48-2.6312.2121.23-2.5810.0610.85-12.31-12.132010034137.00-6.177.393119.590.4932.031548.67-0.314.9520.19-4.90-5.3810.39-4.26-8.622010044140.630.0913.573088.63-0.9911.001555.190.421.9419.50-3.42-5.7510.39-0.031.442010054186.671.119.403006.69-2.6516.141511.00-2.84-6.4619.07-2.21-7.7210.33-0.563.702010063919.23-6.391.572970.08-1.224.891509.90-0.07-7.9620.055.16-6.3910.824.795.082010073910.71-0.220.043044.142.4911.161525.751.05-12.6221.768.536.7312.5515.9511.752010083953.791.100.623082.071.2527.501536.450.70-8.1422.664.1110.7212.963.285.882010093992.860.992.382998.29-2.7225.581540.100.24-11.9421.73-4.10-0.5213.242.145.052010104069.851.93-1.243071.402.4413.581549.420.60-10.6120.72-4.65-1.9413.592.6513.292010114001.91-1.67-6.573062.82-0.289.781622.664.73-11.3322.398.070.6613.882.1514.722010124407.6910.142.213135.422.379.691591.06-1.95-12.8719.86-11.31-12.0813.960.598.422011013944.69-10.50-7.433142.460.224.841633.292.652.3723.1116.396.0414.332.5915.742011024011.471.69-9.013164.830.711.941656.821.446.6526.5014.6524.8015.246.3940.432011034093.292.04-1.063243.242.483.961768.246.7214.1828.517.5941.1715.17-0.4546.022011044091.11-0.05-1.203255.280.375.401748.54-1.1112.4330.928.4758.5715.471.9448.902011054245.423.771.403434.425.5014.231821.014.1420.5234.9613.0583.3217.2611.5867.072011064351.812.5111.043621.265.4421.921940.626.5728.5340.6516.29102.7319.2911.7978.242011074354.090.0511.343591.71-0.8217.991958.000.9028.3341.321.6589.8819.350.2954.172011084312.13-0.969.063580.43-0.3116.171966.600.4428.0041.971.5685.2319.731.9752.212011094268.92-1.006.913488.04-2.5816.331964.62-0.1027.5640.08-4.4984.4919.42-1.5846.672011104249.57-0.454.423428.84-1.7011.641932.29-1.6524.7135.94-10.3473.4817.88-7.9431.542011114289.200.937.183416.67-0.3611.551900.08-1.6717.1031.38-12.6940.1516.64-6.9119.882011124212.49-1.03-4.433412.50-0.088.841840.45-2.6515.6732.413.5563.2116.962.1121.472012014442.734.9212.633479.672.2710.731958.775.9119.9330.85-3.4933.4916.86-0.8617.702012024379.36-1.439.173542.551.8111.931887.01-3.6613.8934.6812.4230.8916.24-3.696.5521/21 2012034398.220.437.453384.54-4.464.361919.561.738.5632.47-6.3713.9115.24-6.160.432012044406.810.207.723498.333.367.471904.941.078.9433.172.157.2714.50-4.81-6.222012054214.42-4.37-0.733348.26-4.29-2.511861.70-2.272.2332.70-1.41-6.4514.00-3.47-18.872012064400.894.421.133438.662.70-5.041864.380.14-3.9331.55-3.50-22.3814.100.73-26.902012074243.48-3.58-2.543472.150.972.701841.28-1.240.1429.28-7.21-3.5014.07-0.200.732012084198.73-1.05-2.633230.71-6.95-9.771823.69-0.96-7.2729.09-0.64-30.6814.482.86-26.622012094182.69-0.38-2.023478.597.67-0.271808.94-0.81-7.9227.66-4.93-31.0014.661.29-24.472012104169.22-0.32-1.893367.58-3.19-1.791801.78-0.40-6.7527.13-1.90-24.5014.52-1.00-18.782012114059.46-2.63-4.633384.580.50-0.901827.111.41-3.3626.04-4.03-16.7914.932.86-10.112012124023.75-0.88-4.973390.350.17-0.351851.581.340.1227.244.61-14.7816.158.16-5.022013014031.060.18-9.273264.47-3.71-6.181842.53-0.49-5.9328.524.71-7.5416.482.04-2.252013023987.49-1.08-8.953172.21-2.83-10.451825.50-0.92-3.2628.08-1.54-19.0214.62-11.27-9.962013034090.052.57-7.013195.670.74-5.581835.230.53-4.3928.963.12-10.8113.10-10.42-14.042013043992.70-2.38-9.403224.300.90-7.831775.91-3.23-6.7727.23-5.97-17.9112.52-4.43-13.662013053969.23-0.59-5.823210.35-0.43-4.121802.191.48-3.2028.173.45-13.8513.407.03-4.292013063992.000.57-9.293184.00-0.82-7.411807.000.27-3.0831.0210.12-1.6814.417.542.202013074071.001.98-4.063275.002.86-5.681808.000.06-1.8132.213.8410.0114.953.756.252013083967.18-2.55-5.513144.48-3.99-2.671809.600.09-0.7732.862.0212.9615.775.488.912013094004.400.94-4.263235.602.90-6.991823.730.780.8230.87-6.0611.6115.800.197.782013104053.091.22-2.793258.260.70-3.251794.95-1.58-0.3829.26-5.227.8515.34-2.915.652013114070.510.430.273162.97-2.92-6.551822.931.56-0.2327.46-6.155.4515.732.545.342013124160.092.203.393215.271.65-5.161830.830.43-1.1227.24-0.800.0015.29-2.80-5.332014014049.32-2.660.453238.450.72-0.801846.040.830.1926.68-2.06-6.4614.59-4.58-11.4721/21 附表2监测企业平均出栏体重变化单位：kg，%年月原种猪祖代种猪父母代种猪仔猪育肥猪体重环比同比体重环比同比体重环比同比体重环比同比体重环比同比20120175.61**69.23**60.03**22.71**108.71**20120277.442.42*69.450.32*62.544.18*21.46-5.50*106.35-2.17*20120378.691.62*73.005.11*62.53-0.02*22.354.13*108.041.59*20120477.17-1.93*70.26-3.75*61.53-1.60*20.99-6.09*108.110.06*20120573.98-4.13*67.98-3.25*57.45-6.64*20.72-1.28*108.810.65*20120673.23-1.02*68.110.18*56.45-1.74*20.72-0.01*108.48-0.31*20120773.650.57*66.02-3.06*58.273.22*20.810.47*109.941.35*20120875.262.19*60.52-8.34*55.12-5.40*20.02-3.81*105.89-3.69*20120974.37-1.18*67.6111.72*58.997.03*21.025.00*108.512.48*20121075.922.89*68.732.46*58.27-0.27*22.285.50*107.78-0.61*20121174.21-2.25*66.13-3.78*58.750.82*22.310.11*106.36-1.31*20121274.981.04*69.064.43*58.50-0.41*22.04-1.22*107.400.98*20130175.821.130.2871.313.263.0162.777.294.5620.75-5.86-8.64107.470.06-1.1420130273.64-2.88-4.9069.47-2.570.0463.370.961.3320.70-0.22-3.53110.682.994.0720130277.525.27-1.4970.030.81-4.0761.30-3.27-1.9720.830.63-6.79109.65-0.931.4920130476.81-0.92-0.4869.43-0.86-1.1964.164.674.2820.65-0.86-1.60109.930.261.6920130573.82-3.89-0.2269.730.442.5762.44-2.688.6920.61-0.19-0.52108.63-1.18-0.1720130677.815.416.2671.542.605.0460.45-3.197.0919.88-3.54-4.03106.95-1.55-1.4120130775.80-2.582.9271.44-0.148.2159.98-0.782.9319.85-0.15-4.61108.461.41-1.3520130877.572.343.0771.480.0618.1161.382.3311.3619.58-1.36-2.20107.58-0.811.6020130977.800.304.6170.74-1.044.6360.83-0.903.1220.605.21-2.00107.870.27-0.5920131078.160.462.9572.792.905.9162.963.508.0521.313.45-4.35108.040.160.2420131176.84-1.693.5469.89-3.985.6862.41-0.876.2421.963.05-1.56109.050.932.5320131277.881.353.8772.303.454.7063.601.918.7121.65-1.41-1.76108.32-0.670.8520140180.182.955.7478.308.309.8065.372.784.1421.03-2.861.37105.17-2.91-2.1421/21 附表3能繁母猪规模在2000头以下的监测企业生产数据汇总单位：头年月存栏情况出栏及销售情况能繁母猪存栏原种祖代父母代其他猪存栏哺乳仔猪保育猪<25kg中猪25-60kg大猪>60kg总存栏总出栏种猪销量纯种母猪二元母猪仔猪育肥猪201301305471286410571706622000250520586085518055694250549448371143835857051880524594201302307221273310727724222015953025575825521554447250883451221011928396887988225553201303307701198411368749121869953872560025284156144249471363519293258160066349208832013043098912009115567513213564525455613751246538162445463756294742730621462942201320130530973127401079974572114605161355521519915290124247440396102032793686266662245320130620130730942308851273012645107741077974547510216221221960542285611458554584525060753073535035502324722425291039953384821012194722623249570616380692065592166021372201308304321259610633711022064555746558315502154730251829386888527216157597396203562013093034712385107597328220296536405683455270553302202963731190792315632656112077620131030599127931053372742230275428957266527606048125349335109915622376593502119128201311306181265110678733722055252129554335373661195251060370168527215759116450197042013123090912928105327595214928487565547852952593402456373662792291834689048592061620140131116129491072575202154874922854279546415872024640135001623214924158736219494附表4能繁母猪规模在2000头以上的监测企业生产数据汇总单位：头年月存栏情况出栏及销售情况能繁母猪存栏原种祖代父母代其他猪存栏哺乳仔猪保育猪<25kg中猪25-60kg大猪>60kg总存栏总出栏种猪销量纯种母猪二元母猪仔猪育肥猪2013015171989028212797429825937200184826546584945486356087584237216846876106813267174781812536423221620130252069892704124675302445388222850301768751156305561832444029706722469034719618431829958922309721/21 201303526334946781265893042803895159503402698328558023615591442152682368511832432347634321255452226822013045297209840612753430308839386184966146942075725186136874468377787648115716281725558113071721947920130553876110220612878230559639207845021806984655577016161344459726868871120695291065951014107621576120130620130720130853868355465655389710413411046511118112533612971812848630851230894230891838816723992873402467850924753752754298367484972773873377654845553756053812761814461349362077444204054547397457902790563589821690854911899411660612603630374298053197456940546105800016368916023315547421098921253821442120130955147610619313077731114038694375531727252234883055826524420752904858143150364226852015884319462920131055522610719113144431303838794985351947288495201925711154434457903863120575305405461016637220554720131155650310787713223331153638791105328397273915125975821954435344931340115451304245103317337721732520131255906311128613092431050838639815374217237545181845655444422481926032114608332714774217355021510820140152328411069811384429364935991594838576703804773315512574121645906930102588305003820318184120920621/21'